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Critical Materials

The supply of critical materials is the weakest point in both the energy transition and the building of AI infrastructure. China dominates processing, which gives Beijing a hold that Western efforts to find other suppliers will take a decade to weaken.

high conviction 20 technologies

Category overview

China controls 90% of rare earth refining, 80%+ of gallium/germanium, 60%+ of lithium refining, and 95%+ of LFP cathode materials. The bottleneck is chemical processing, not mining. Western diversification efforts will take a decade. Chemical precursors (ammonium sulfate, magnesium sulfate) needed for refining are also overwhelmingly Chinese-produced. This is the most underappreciated strategic vulnerability.

Technologies tracked

20 total

Additive manufacturing Advanced materials Advanced mineral processing Advanced recycling Antimony supply chain Carbon fiber composites Cobalt supply chain Copper supply chain Critical minerals supply chains Desalination Direct lithium extraction (DLE) Dysprosium and heavy rare earths Gallium and germanium Graphite supply chain Lithium supply chain Neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets Neon and specialty gases Nickel supply chain Rare earth elements Tungsten supply chain

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