Nickel supply chain
The nickel supply balance still depends on Indonesian policy and on which projects reach production. The International Energy Agency's 2026 scenarios change materially when earlier-stage projects are included. A quota announcement or a price rebound is not enough to show a lasting global deficit.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
Xiang Guangda built the Indonesian nickel empire on Tsingshan RKEF technology, taking Indonesia to ~60% of global supply and crushing prices through 2024–2025. The story has now inverted: Jakarta cut the 2026 RKAB ore quota by roughly a third, flipping the market into a forecast deficit and lifting prices off multi-year lows. This is a managed-supply era set in Jakarta, not a Western revival. Battery-grade Class 1 nickel remains distinct from Class 2 stainless feed, but Indonesian HPAL is closing that gap while LFP cathode growth caps Class 1 demand.
State of the art (2026)
The five-year Indonesian glut is over by policy, not exhaustion. Jakarta cut the 2026 RKAB ore quota to ~270 million wet tonnes from 375mt in 2025 and reinstated annual approvals, deliberately starving its own RKEF and HPAL smelters. LME nickel rallied roughly 37% off its December 2025 low to about $19,450 per tonne by late April 2026, and the INSG flipped its 2026 balance to a ~32,000-tonne deficit, the first since 2021, from a 283,000-tonne 2025 surplus. Indonesia still sets ~60% of global supply, so this is a managed-supply era, not a Western revival: BHP Nickel West stays on care and maintenance pending a February 2027 restart review, while LFP cathode growth keeps capping Class 1 demand.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
8 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
132 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
4 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
7 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
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