Graphite supply chain
We judge graphite supply by qualified anode material and customer demand. The US vehicle credit, Section 30D, generally excludes vehicles acquired after 30 September 2025, so that deadline is out of date. January 2027 will therefore not set off demand across the board.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
Every lithium-ion battery anode uses graphite. China dominates mining and processing. China's graphite export restrictions (October 2023) demonstrated willingness to weaponise supply. Syrah Resources (Shaun Verner) is building the first non-Chinese graphite processing facility at Vidalia, Louisiana. Synthetic graphite is an alternative but energy-intensive and expensive.
State of the art (2026)
China still mines roughly three-quarters of natural graphite and dominates spherical and synthetic anode processing. The pressure point is regulatory timing. Beijing imposed US-targeted graphite export licensing from December 2024, widened it to anode materials in late 2025, then suspended the US measures in November 2025 until late 2026 as a trade-truce gesture. That truce is fragile, and the IRA 30D "impracticable-to-trace" exemption for graphite expires on 31 December 2026, making FEOC compliance binding from January 2027. Western capacity is real but thin: Syrah's Vidalia plant in Louisiana began active anode material output in 2024 and won a Lucid offtake, while Talga, Nouveau Monde, Vianode, Anovion and Novonix are still ramping toward commercial scale.
Explore the deeper analysis in CanaryIQ
Explore what is covered below. These previews show the structure; log in to read the full analysis.
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
8 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
140 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
4 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 17
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
7 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Graphite supply chain has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.