1. We read the evidence
We collect patent filings, research papers and preprints, company filings and results, regulatory and policy documents, funding and market data, and expert commentary. We link each item to the technologies, companies and people it is about.
2. We keep a view on 235 technologies
For each technology we write down where it stands now and where we think it is going, with the companies and people involved. We update the view when the evidence changes. These pages are what the predictions rest on.
3. We make predictions
From that research we publish predictions about where technology ends up. Each one says what most people think and who says so, what we think and why, what we expect to see first, what would change our mind, and what it means for investors, defence, government and businesses.
We say when each prediction should come true, and after that we mark it right or wrong.
4. We keep the record, including our mistakes
Every forecast we have made is still on the site with what we said at the time. We re-check them every month. This month we dropped two, are less sure of seven and more sure of eight. Three are unchanged.
When a date arrives, a person checks what happened and records it. None of the predictions has reached its date yet.
5. We follow the risks
We follow the things that could go wrong, from a blockade of Taiwan to a shortage of power for data centres. For each one we say how likely it is and what it would hit. Some are already happening.
6. We show you the news that matters
You choose the technologies you follow. We show you the latest news on them, and whether it supports or counts against each prediction.
Keep reading
What you need to know: the short version of every prediction.
Data & Sources: the sources our research uses.
Attention and progress: how we compare the attention a technology gets with the progress it has made.