Advanced recycling
Chemical recycling is running commercially, including at Eastman's methanolysis plant in Kingsport. The sales growth reported there shows activity. Whether PET solvolysis is the only profitable route is unproven. To compare processes, look at each plant's feedstock, utilisation, energy costs and the prices it actually gets.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
State of the art (2026)
Advanced recycling has crossed from announcement into operating capacity, but the curve is flatter than 2023 projections implied. ExxonMobil started its third Baytown advanced-recycling unit in February 2026, lifting that site to roughly 250 million pounds per year and putting the company on track for about 450 million pounds (circa 200 kilotonnes) of global capacity by year-end 2026. Eastman runs its Kingsport methanolysis plant near capacity, yet has paused its larger Normandy project pending EU recycled-content rules. Carbios has slipped its Longlaville enzymatic FOAK: construction restart hinges on a financing close it now targets for Q3 2026, with production pushed to first-half 2028. The durable read: PET depolymerisation pays today, mixed-plastic pyrolysis economics still depend on regulation, not oil price.
Capacity build-out is real but flatter than 2023 projections
Advanced recycling has crossed the announcement-to-capacity threshold, but the curve is shallower than 2023 plans implied. ExxonMobil started its third Baytown advanced-recycling unit in February 2026, lifting that site to roughly 250 million pounds per year and putting the company on track for about 450 million pounds (circa 200 kilotonnes) of global capacity by year-end 2026 – well short of the 500-million-pound nameplate once targeted. Eastman runs its Kingsport, Tennessee methanolysis facility (operational since late 2023) near capacity, but has paused its larger ~110kt Normandy, France methanolysis project pending EU recycled-content rules. PureCycle's solvent-dissolution polypropylene plant at Ironton, Ohio is ramping (record ~8.4 million pounds in Q1 2026). SABIC and Plastic Energy's SPEAR pyrolysis JV at Geleen, Netherlands has produced first TACOIL, though Plastic Energy's UK parent entered administration in spring 2026 (Spanish plants unaffected). Brightmark's Ashley, Indiana pyrolysis plant passed through Chapter 11 in 2025 and operated well below nameplate. The structural read: the next 12–24 months of operational data on yield, energy intensity and unit economics determine whether the category compounds or stalls below the projected curve.
Minimum-recycled-content regulation is the demand engine through 2030
Four major recycled-content regulations are entering full enforcement through 2026-2030. EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) sets minimum recycled-content thresholds rising through 2030 across contact-sensitive plastics. California SB 54 requires 65% recycled-or-reusable single-use plastic packaging by 2032 with rising annual milestones. UK Plastic Packaging Tax imposes per-tonne tax on packaging with <30% recycled content. Japan Plastic Resource Circulation Act mandates collection and recycling protocols. Brand-owner commitments (Unilever, P&G, Nestlé, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Mars) target 30%+ recycled content by 2029-2030. The structural demand is enormous: every tonne of virgin plastic in regulated packaging must be substituted with recycled or alternative material. Mechanical recycling alone cannot supply the demand - it works for PET bottles and some HDPE but cannot handle the contaminated mixed-polymer waste streams. Advanced (chemical) recycling is the regulatory-driven supply-side response.
Enzymatic recycling (Carbios) is the next-tech proof point
The next-generation thesis for advanced recycling is enzymatic depolymerisation – using engineered enzymes to break PET back to monomers at lower temperature and energy intensity than thermal solvolysis. Carbios is the leading enzymatic-recycling pure-play; its Longlaville, France first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plant targets 50,000 tonnes/year of PET monomer. The timeline has slipped: financing close is now targeted for Q3 2026 and commissioning for first-half 2028 (previously 2027). Successful commissioning at yield and energy targets opens the path to a Carbios-licensed-technology rollout across global PET-bottle markets and narrows the energy-intensity gap with virgin PET. Continued financing or execution delay narrows the next-tech pathway to thermal solvolysis and pyrolysis only. The Longlaville readout remains the highest-leverage single proof point for the enzymatic thesis.
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