Cobalt supply chain
Demand for cobalt depends on battery chemistry, and supply depends heavily on the export policy of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Lithium iron phosphate batteries reduce cobalt use, but total demand may not fall smoothly and the supply risk remains.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
DRC produces 70%+ of global cobalt, with 15-20% from artisanal mines with child labour concerns. China (CATL, CMOC) controls 70% of cobalt refining. The industry response: shift to LFP (cobalt-free) and NMC 811 (reduced cobalt). This is working — cobalt demand growth is flattening even as EV sales surge. Mark Bristow (Barrick Gold) advocates responsible DRC sourcing.
State of the art (2026)
The defining fact of 2026 is reversal: after a February 2025 export ban, the DRC replaced it in October 2025 with quotas capping 2026–2027 exports at 96,600 tonnes a year (roughly half of 2024), including a 9,600-tonne strategic reserve. Prices ran from near $21,000 a tonne in early 2025 to above $56,000 by mid-2026. Kinshasa, not oversupply, now sets the price. CMOC and Glencore hold the largest DRC allocations; Indonesian by-product output (~67,500 tonnes MHP) cushions but cannot replace lost Congolese units. The structural counter-current persists – LFP nears 65% of new cells by 2029 and high-nickel cathodes trim cobalt per kWh – but demand still grew to roughly 219.6kt in 2026.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
7 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
131 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
3 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
8 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
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