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What a CanaryIQ subscription includes

CanaryIQ is one subscription with five parts. The predictions rest on our research, the risks show what could stop them coming true, and the news shows whether the evidence still supports them.

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What you get

  1. Predictions

    Predictions about technology over the next ten years. Each one says what most people think, what we think and why, what we expect to see first, what would change our mind, and what it means for investors, defence, government and businesses.

    See the predictions

  2. A record that includes our mistakes

    Every forecast we have made is still on the site, with what we said and what we think now. This month we re-checked all twenty: we dropped two, are less sure of seven and more sure of eight. Three are unchanged. When a date arrives, a person records whether it happened.

  3. Research on 235 technologies

    Our current view on each technology, with the companies and people involved. We base the predictions on this research.

    Browse the technologies

  4. Risks

    Things that could go wrong, such as a blockade of Taiwan, rare earth export limits or not enough power for data centres. For each one we say how likely it is and what it would hit. Some are already happening.

  5. The latest news

    News on the technologies you follow, used as evidence for or against the predictions.

Three of our predictions

Anyone can read the headlines. Subscribers get our full view on each one.

AI models and agents

Anthropic and OpenAI will keep over 70% of US business spending on AI models to 2028

We find out
End of 2028
How sure we are
Fairly sure

What most people think

The top AI models are turning into a commodity. Open-weight models from DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi and GLM, which anyone can download and run, are about four months behind. So the money will go to whoever owns the customer, the workflow and the data, rather than to the model makers.

Who says this: Josh Bersin, in a June 2026 essay; Satya Nadella, in a June 2026 essay saying models should be swappable; CanaryIQ's 2026 page on large language models

Batteries and storage

Grid storage will use more battery cells than electric vehicles in 2028

We find out
End of 2028
How sure we are
Fairly sure

What most people think

Electric vehicles will stay the biggest buyer of battery cells, with grid storage growing but in second place. EU support for new cell plants therefore goes only to EV battery factories.

Who says this: BloombergNEF (Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026), Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and the European Commission, whose €1.5bn Battery Booster funds only EV cell plants

AI and cyber security

AI will find software flaws faster than they get fixed

We find out
End of 2028
How sure we are
Fairly sure

What most people think

AI bug-hunting will help defenders more than attackers, because AI labs and big software firms will find and fix flaws before attackers can use them. VulnCheck calls AI's effect on attacks so far 'real but modest', and WTW expects Mythos alone will not push up cyber insurance prices.

Who says this: Anthropic (launching Project Glasswing), VulnCheck (its first-half 2026 exploitation report), WTW and Airmic (on cyber insurance pricing)

See every prediction

The evidence underneath

Our research draws on patents, research papers, company filings, policy and expert commentary. These pages explain what we take from each one.

Attention and progress

Compare how much attention a technology gets with how much real progress it has made.

Read about attention and progress

Research tracking

The papers, researchers and institutions behind each technology.

Explore research tracking

Patent intelligence

Who is filing patents, on what, and how that is changing.

Explore patent intelligence

Expert analysis

What industry experts are saying, checked against the evidence.

Explore expert analysis

Regulatory policy

The laws, rules and deadlines that decide how fast a technology can move.

Explore regulatory policy

Public companies

Listed companies involved in each technology, and how they connect.

Explore public companies

Private companies

Start-ups and private companies involved in each technology.

Explore private companies

Common questions

CanaryIQ says where technology is heading and when. We publish predictions about technology over the next ten years, keep a record of every forecast we have made, and keep research on 235 technologies and the risks to them up to date.
Each prediction's headline, its subject, its end date, how sure we are, and what most people think. Our own view, the reasoning, what we expect to see first, what would change our mind and what it means for you are for subscribers.
A news service tells you what happened in the last day. CanaryIQ tells you where a technology ends up and when. We use the news as evidence for or against each prediction.
It stays on the site, marked as wrong. When a date arrives, a person checks what happened and records it beside the prediction. None of them has reached its date yet. Our earlier forecasts are still on the site, including the two we have dropped.
Patent databases, research papers and preprints, company filings and results, regulatory and policy documents, funding and market data, and expert commentary.

Read our full view on every prediction

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