Neon and specialty gases
Supply risk in specialty gases differs for each gas and each manufacturing process. The International Energy Agency's 2026 report identifies helium disruption linked to Qatar. So the risk goes beyond Korean and Japanese suppliers, and neon recycling does not solve it. What matters most is whether alternative supply exists and is qualified for semiconductor use.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
Ukraine produced 50%+ of semiconductor-grade neon (a byproduct of Russian steel production, purified in Odessa and Mariupol). War disrupted supply. Prices spiked 10x in 2022. Diversification to US, Korean, and Chinese sources is proceeding but specialty gas purity requirements create high barriers to entry.
State of the art (2026)
The 2022 neon shock has largely been engineered away. On-site recycling now recovers over 90% of laser-gas neon at leading fabs, EFC ships a Cymer-qualified recycling system, and Samsung sources roughly three-quarters of its neon from recycled feedstock; prices have fallen back toward pre-war levels as China, Korea and Japan scaled rare-gas output and Air Liquide and Air Products added US capacity. EUV at 13.5nm uses no neon, so structural demand growth concentrates in DUV. The live fragilities have moved: helium is dangerously concentrated after the BLM sold its Cliffside reserve to Messer in 2024 and Qatar Ras Laffan outages, while NF3, WF6 and ultra-pure HF remain chokepointed in Korea and Japan.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
7 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
3 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
117 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
4 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
7 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
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