Rare earth elements
Efforts to diversify rare-earth supply are making uneven progress. The International Energy Agency reports some progress in US and Malaysian supply, with dependencies remaining downstream. Watch individual elements and the route from separation to qualified magnets. New capacity does not yet amount to a complete alternative chain, and one could still emerge this decade.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
James Litinsky (MP Materials) operates the only US rare earth mine at Mountain Pass. Amanda Lacaze (Lynas) built the only non-Chinese supply chain. But mining is only 30% of the problem — refining and magnet manufacturing are 70%, and China controls 90%+. The chemical precursors needed for refining (ammonium sulfate, magnesium sulfate) are also overwhelmingly Chinese. Guillaume Pitron raised awareness with 'The Rare Metals War.'
State of the art (2026)
China mines roughly 70% of the world's rare earths and refines about 90%. Since April 2025 it has required export licences for specified products of seven elements: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium, according to the US Geological Survey. Supply outside China is growing from a small base. MP Materials makes magnets at its Independence plant in Fort Worth. In July 2025 the US Department of Defense agreed to take a stake of about 15% in the company and to guarantee a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for its neodymium-praseodymium for ten years. Lynas has begun separating heavy rare earths in Malaysia. Progress differs by element, and making qualified magnets outside China remains harder than mining or separation.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
7 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
93 players · 5 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
4 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
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Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
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Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
8 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
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