Gallium and germanium
China's suspension of specified restrictions on exporting gallium and germanium to the US runs to 27 November 2026. It pauses clause two of the 2024 notice. Other export controls and the separate ban on military use stay in force. The relaxation is temporary and does not show that supply has diversified.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
Gallium underpins GaN RF and power chips (5G, radar, AI-server PSUs, EV inverters) and GaAs wafers; germanium is essential to fibre optics, infrared optics and space solar cells. China runs ~99% of primary gallium and a clear majority of refined germanium. Beijing moved from July 2023 export licensing to a December 2024 outright ban on shipments to the US, then suspended that ban through 27 November 2026 under the November 2025 Trump-Xi truce - the military-end-user prohibition and licensing regime persist. Western recycling and byproduct recovery (Umicore, 5N Plus, Indium Corporation, MTM) can partially offset but cannot displace primary Chinese supply before 2028. A structural vulnerability for Western technology and defence, paused rather than resolved.
State of the art (2026)
The story in mid-2026 is de-escalation, not crisis. After Beijing imposed export licensing on gallium and germanium in July 2023 and a formal ban on shipments to the US in December 2024, the November 2025 Trump-Xi truce suspended that ban through 27 November 2026 - though the military-end-user prohibition and licensing regime persist. Prices have unwound from their peaks: the SMM gallium benchmark sits near $277/kg, while in-warehouse US germanium trades around $6,150/kg, far above Chinese domestic levels. Western capacity remains marginal - MTM Critical Metals' Texas recovery plant, 5N Plus, Indium Corporation and Umicore recycling, plus a restarting Kazakh line. None displaces Chinese dominance before 2028.
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Signal stack
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
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Technology-native KPIs
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Who builds what, and who depends on whom
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