Technology thesis · Semiconductors & Chips
high conviction growthGaN and SiC power semiconductors
Gallium nitride and silicon carbide are replacing silicon in power electronics, driven by EV inverters and data center power supplies; the supply chain is concentrated in a few specialist fabs.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Apr 22, 2026
The thesis
Core thesis
Wide-bandgap semiconductors (GaN, SiC) offer higher efficiency and power density than silicon for power conversion. SiC dominates EV inverters (Tesla, BYD use SiC) and is moving to 200mm wafers; GaN is growing in AI data-centre power supplies and fast chargers, pulled by NVIDIA-class 800V HVDC rack architectures. Wolfspeed (post-Chapter-11 since September 2025), Infineon, STMicroelectronics and onsemi are the key suppliers. China controls roughly 80 per cent of gallium supply; after banning gallium exports to the US in December 2024 it suspended the restrictions in November 2025 through 27 November 2026, leaving GaN feedstock a live geopolitical risk rather than an active cut-off.
State of the art (2026)
Wide-bandgap power has split into two demand engines moving at different speeds. SiC, which carries the 650-1700V band for EV traction inverters, weathered a real 2024-25 slowdown as BEV growth cooled and Chinese supply expanded; Wolfspeed emerged from Chapter 11 in September 2025 with debt cut roughly 70 per cent and CEO Robert Feurle steering its vertically integrated 200mm Mohawk Valley fab, while Infineon, STMicroelectronics and onsemi push their own 200mm capacity ahead of an expected 800V recovery. GaN is the brighter near-term story: NVIDIA selected Navitas for its 800V HVDC AI-rack architecture serving Rubin-era systems, pulling GaN from consumer chargers into data-centre power. China (Innoscience, SICC, BASiC) is scaling fast on state support, pressuring Western margins.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on GaN and SiC power semiconductors has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.