Autonomous trucking
Driverless trucks are now in commercial service on selected routes. Aurora reports a second-generation driverless fleet and more freight customers. Growth still needs reliable service across operating conditions and economics that work for a full fleet. The planned manufacturing capacity and year-end truck targets are not yet trucks earning revenue.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
State of the art (2026)
Driver-out has shifted from demo to revenue. Aurora launched commercial driverless Class 8 freight on the Dallas–Houston lane in May 2025 and by early 2026 had passed 250,000 driverless miles with no fault-attributed collisions, tripled its network to roughly ten Sun Belt routes, validated night running and a 1,000-mile Fort Worth–Phoenix haul, and is targeting 200-plus driverless trucks by year-end on next-generation International LT hardware. Kodiak went public via SPAC in 2025 (now Kodiak AI) with an Atlas Energy order in the Permian; Plus, Waabi, Torc and Volvo Autonomous Solutions trail. The open questions are fleet-scale unit economics and a federal ADS rule, not whether the trucks can drive themselves.
Explore the deeper analysis in CanaryIQ
Explore what is covered below. These previews show the structure; log in to read the full analysis.
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
3 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
52 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
6 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
7 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
21 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
8 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Autonomous trucking has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.