Space domain awareness

State of the art (2026)

Tracking objects in orbit has become a routine commercial service as well as a military one. LeoLabs runs a worldwide network of S-band radars, and its first Scout-S radar began adding observations to its catalogue in June 2026. ExoAnalytic, Slingshot Aerospace, COMSPOC and EOS compete with telescopes and analysis software. Surveillance networks now track tens of thousands of objects, which include debris and dead satellites as well as working ones. The number of working satellites in low Earth orbit is rising quickly, so avoiding collisions has become a regular cost for operators. We do not quote a forecast for the number of satellites in 2030 because published projections vary widely.

LEO scaling toward 70,000+ satellites makes SDA non-optional infrastructure

The structural driver is the LEO satellite population trajectory. Approximately 30,000+ objects are currently tracked in orbit; industry projections put 70,000+ operational satellites in low Earth orbit by 2030, with a growing share from adversarial nations (China, Russia). At those densities, conjunction probability (close-approach events) increases approximately quadratically with object count, making collision-avoidance and threat-characterisation infrastructure non-optional for any commercial constellation operator (SpaceX Starlink, Amazon Kuiper, OneWeb, China SatNet, China Guo Wang). The structural read is that SDA is no longer a luxury research-and-defence category - it is the routine operating-cost layer underneath every major commercial constellation. Kessler-syndrome risk (cascading debris collisions) is now a board-level commercial concern, not just a strategic concern. The combined commercial-and-defence SDA market is forecast above $1B in annual revenue by 2027-2028.

LeoLabs is the commercial ground-radar leader; USSF GSSAP is the GEO authority

LeoLabs operates the largest globally-distributed commercial S-band active phased-array radar network for SDA - real-time tracking, conjunction warnings, debris characterisation. SpaceWERX awarded a $60M Strategic Funding Increase in 2025 to build a new ultra-high frequency radar in the Indo-Pacific, designed to detect new foreign launches within minutes. LeoLabs Delta launched 8 April 2026 as an AI-powered advanced threat detection and characterisation system for US and allied national-security missions - the company's move from infrastructure provider to integrated threat-analysis platform. In the GEO regime, USSF GSSAP (Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program) is the authority - space-based inspector satellites that characterise objects in geosynchronous orbit. GSSAP reaches full operational capability in 2026 and is expected to deliver an 'exponential leap' in tracking Russian and Chinese satellites at GEO. The structural read: ground-radar commercial side anchored by LeoLabs (with ExoAnalytic, EOS, NorthStar competing), GEO space-based side anchored by USSF GSSAP + Silent Barker, with allied partners (UK Royal Air Force, French Space Command, Japan JASDF Space Operations Squadron) increasingly purchasing commercial-data services and contributing complementary national sensors.

Active debris remediation moves from research to first commercial demonstration

Active debris remediation (ADR) - physically removing dead satellites and debris fragments from orbit - has been a long-tail research initiative since the 2000s. Astroscale ran ELSA-d in 2021 and its ADRAS-J successfully rendezvoused with a Japanese H-2A upper stage in 2024, completing operations and beginning de-orbit. The leading near-term step is Astroscale ADRAS-J2 (Phase II of JAXA CRD2), which targets approach, capture and de-orbit of that same rocket body, planned to launch in fiscal year 2027. ESA ClearSpace-1 has slipped to roughly 2028-2029 after its target was changed to PROBA-1 and a debris collision near the original target forced a leaner re-scope. A successful capture-and-de-orbit demonstration opens a structurally new revenue line (per-object remediation contracts paid by satellite operators, insurers or governments). The market is small in absolute scale but carries strong regulatory and insurance tailwinds: FCC five-year post-mission disposal rules and the draft EU Space Act (2026).