Solid-state LiDAR
Automotive LiDAR is shipping in large numbers. Hesai reports 485,904 units for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in Q2 2026, counted separately from its robotics shipments. Those figures say nothing about a standard solid-state price, worldwide market share or a win over other sensor designs. Count shipped products apart from design wins and expected production starts.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
LiDAR for cars now ships in volume. Hesai reported 485,904 units for driver-assistance systems in the second quarter of 2026. Chinese makers, including Hesai and RoboSense, supply most of the market. Luminar, once the best-known Western supplier, filed for Chapter 11 in December 2025. Many sensors sold as solid-state still have some moving parts: Hesai describes its AT128P as hybrid solid-state. Reliability and cost therefore depend on how each sensor steers its beam. Tesla continues to rely on cameras alone.
State of the art (2026)
Solid-state automotive LiDAR has bifurcated decisively into Chinese volume and a struggling Western remnant. Hesai shipped 1.62M units in 2025 (its first profitable year) and guides to 3-3.5M in 2026, doubling capacity past 4M; RoboSense added 912K. The Western SPAC cohort has buckled: Luminar filed Chapter 11 in December 2025 after Austin Russell was ousted and Volvo dropped its LiDAR, while Mercedes paused Level 3 Drive Pilot in favour of an L2++ hands-on system. The live questions are whether anyone arrests Chinese cost leadership, whether FMCW differentiates (Aeva won an exclusive European OEM platform in December 2025, SOP 2028), and whether Tesla-style vision-only certification ever undercuts the LiDAR safety case.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
8 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
3 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
37 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
1 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
7 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 19
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
8 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Solid-state LiDAR has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.