Technology thesis · Defence & Aerospace
medium conviction growthSolid-state LiDAR
Solid-state LiDAR has won the ADAS sensor war on cost (sub-$200/unit) but Chinese suppliers now hold ~95% of shipments; the Western SPAC cohort has collapsed.
Position maintained continuously · last reviewed Jun 25, 2026
The thesis
Core thesis
Solid-state LiDAR has displaced mechanical spinning units in automotive: no moving parts means lower cost, higher reliability and automotive-grade durability, and unit cost has fallen from roughly $75K (early Velodyne mechanical) to sub-$200 for ADAS-grade Chinese sensors. The decisive story is geographic, not architectural – Chinese makers (Hesai, RoboSense, Huawei, Seyond) hold ~95% of automotive LiDAR shipments, while the Western SPAC cohort has collapsed: Luminar filed Chapter 11 in December 2025 and sold its LiDAR business to MicroVision. Tesla remains the major holdout on vision-only, and the open question is whether anyone arrests Chinese cost leadership or whether FMCW (Aeva) carves a premium Level 3 niche.
State of the art (2026)
Solid-state automotive LiDAR has bifurcated decisively into Chinese volume and a struggling Western remnant. Hesai shipped 1.62M units in 2025 (its first profitable year) and guides to 3-3.5M in 2026, doubling capacity past 4M; RoboSense added 912K. The Western SPAC cohort has buckled: Luminar filed Chapter 11 in December 2025 after Austin Russell was ousted and Volvo dropped its LiDAR, while Mercedes paused Level 3 Drive Pilot in favour of an L2++ hands-on system. The live questions are whether anyone arrests Chinese cost leadership, whether FMCW differentiates (Aeva won an exclusive European OEM platform in December 2025, SOP 2028), and whether Tesla-style vision-only certification ever undercuts the LiDAR safety case.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what — and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers — each with a remove-by condition
Decision frameworks
The same call, framed for your desk
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
The rest is inside
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and the changelog of every time our call on Solid-state LiDAR has changed — all live inside CanaryIQ.