Counter-drone systems
Counter-drone is one of the fastest-growing areas of defence spending. In 2026 cheap interceptor drones did most of the work against swarms; lasers, microwaves and jamming help, and Patriot-class missiles are still needed against ballistic missiles. Drones like these still use Chinese parts: Ukraine cut China's share of its imported drone parts from about 90% in early 2024 to 28% in January to August 2026, and China requires export licences for drone motors and flight controllers from 18 November 2026.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 10, 2026
Core thesis
Ukraine war demonstrated that $500 FPV drones can destroy $10M tanks. Traditional air defence (Patriot at $4M/missile) is economically unsustainable against drone swarms. Solutions: directed energy (laser at $1-10/shot), electronic warfare (RF jamming), interceptor drones, and AI-powered detection/tracking. Israel's Iron Beam is the most advanced laser counter-drone system. The market is growing 25%+ annually. The fundamental shift: air defence must become as cheap as the threat it faces.
State of the art (2026)
Armies now buy defences against drones in layers: jammers, guns, interceptor drones, microwave weapons and lasers. In December 2025 Israel's defence ministry said it had delivered the first operational Iron Beam laser to its armed forces. In July 2025 the US Army ordered Epirus's Leonidas microwave system, which is designed to disable many drones at once. In March 2026 the US Army gave Anduril a ten-year contract worth up to $20 billion. That figure is the most the Army may order. It is not an amount it has ordered. In August 2025 the Pentagon set up a new joint task force, JIATF 401, to run its work against small drones. Stopping a large number of drones arriving together, at a cost lower than the drones themselves, is still an unsolved problem.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
8 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
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Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
85 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
3 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
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Milestones on the path to maturity
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Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
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Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
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Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
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Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
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