Undersea cable infrastructure
Subsea cables remain essential to communications. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) reports more than 200 faults a year and recommends faster repairs and more resilient routes. Not all of those faults are sabotage. What matters is route concentration, repair access and the capacity left when a link fails.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
400+ submarine cables carry 99% of intercontinental internet traffic. Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon are now the largest cable owners, displacing traditional telecom. Baltic Sea cable cuts (2023-2025) demonstrated vulnerability to state-sponsored sabotage. NATO is increasing seabed protection. The concentration of landing stations creates chokepoint risk. Repair ships are scarce — a single cut can take weeks to fix.
State of the art (2026)
Large technology companies now plan and own long-distance cables themselves. Meta announced Project Waterworth on 14 February 2025: a planned cable of more than 50,000 km with 24 fibre pairs. Those are design figures for a cable that is not yet in service, and we do not have a confirmed construction start date. On security, NATO began its Baltic Sentry patrols in January 2025 after a series of cable breaks in the Baltic Sea.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
6 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
94 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
7 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
9 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Undersea cable infrastructure has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.