Satellite-based Earth observation
Earth observation growth and margin now sit in dedicated collection sold to defence ministries, with the analysis bundled in. Imagery sold to commercial buyers is in oversupply. China's Chang Guang says it had launched 141 Jilin-1 satellites by November 2025, and in May 2026 the US sanctioned it for gathering intelligence on US forces for Iran.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 10, 2026
State of the art (2026)
Commercial Earth observation has crossed from venture infrastructure into a revenue business, but capacity now outruns demand. Maxar Intelligence rebranded to Vantor in October 2025 under CEO Dan Smoot, with all six 30cm-class WorldView Legion satellites operational. Planet, posting record revenue of $73.4m in the quarter to July 2025, launched Pelican 7-9 on 3 May 2026 and flies Tanager-1 hyperspectral. ICEYE disclosed 2025 revenue above EUR 250m at profit on a EUR 1.5bn backlog and is readying an IPO. The NRO EOCL contracts anchor commercial buy through 2032. The real contest has moved from collecting pixels to AI fusion and analytics; SAR and optical imagery are commoditising, and margin sits in turning persistent observation into decisions.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
10 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
161 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
5 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
3 · 18
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
7 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Satellite-based Earth observation has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.