Digital identity
Digital identity needs separate layers for logging in to an account, verifying facts about a person and passing on authority. WebAuthn Level 3, the standard behind passkeys, became a Recommendation in August. A passkey proves a login to one service. Proving that someone is a unique human, or that an AI agent has permission for each action, needs something more.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
State of the art (2026)
Digital identity in 2026 is consolidating around three live fronts. Passwordless has tipped: the FIDO Alliance counts roughly 5 billion passkeys in use, Google reports over 800 million accounts on passkeys, and Microsoft is moving more than a billion users off passwords. Government rails are arriving on a hard clock – Regulation (EU) 2024/1183 requires every member state to offer an EU Digital Identity Wallet by end-2026, with France, Italy and Poland ahead and most others behind. The third front is proof-of-personhood: as deepfakes and agentic bots get cheap, World launched AgentKit and Zoom and DocuSign integrated World ID. The contest is whether incumbents (Okta, Microsoft Entra, SailPoint, CyberArk) absorb verification and personhood, or specialists hold the layer.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
8 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
3 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
207 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
5 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
8 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Digital identity has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.