Cloud computing
Cloud demand is growing strongly, from AI and from conventional computing. Amazon reported AWS second-quarter sales of $42.2 billion, up 37% on a year earlier. One supplier's results cannot tell us the size of the global market or how much industry capital spending goes on graphics processors (GPUs).
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
AWS (Matt Garman), Azure (Satya Nadella), and Google Cloud form an oligopoly. Cloud revenue exceeds $600B annually. AI is the growth vector — but AI workloads consume disproportionate power and compute, crowding out traditional cloud customers. Hyperscalers are diverting capacity from traditional cloud to AI training/inference, raising prices and reducing availability for non-AI workloads.
State of the art (2026)
Cloud demand is growing strongly, with AI workloads adding to conventional computing. Amazon reported AWS sales of $42.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 37% on a year earlier. Google completed its purchase of the security company Wiz on 11 March 2026. The deal was announced at $32 billion, and Alphabet's accounts record $29.5 billion after price adjustments and excluding pay tied to staff staying on. We do not have a dated, comparable figure for the size of the whole market or for the share of capital spending that goes on AI hardware.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
7 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
168 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
3 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
7 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
8 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Cloud computing has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.