Blockchain and distributed ledger
Shared programmable ledgers are being tested for particular jobs inside financial institutions. Project Agorá completed controlled cross-border payments with real value in July, using tokenised bank deposits and central-bank reserves. That goes beyond a software demonstration, but it is still a prototype with manual steps and has not replaced banking infrastructure.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
Ethereum (Vitalik Buterin) completed proof-of-stake transition. Bitcoin adopted as strategic reserve by some companies. DeFi operates at $50B+ TVL. But enterprise blockchain adoption stalled — most corporate pilots were abandoned. The technology found product-market fit in digital assets, not supply chain management or enterprise databases. Regulatory clarity (US, EU MiCA) is slowly arriving.
State of the art (2026)
Blockchain's main uses today are in regulated finance: spot Bitcoin funds, dollar stablecoins and a small but growing set of tokenised assets such as Treasury funds. In the US the GENIUS Act, which sets rules for payment stablecoins, became law on 18 July 2025. It takes effect on the earlier of 18 January 2027 or 120 days after the main federal regulators issue final rules. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency published a proposed rule in February 2026. We do not have current market sizes for stablecoins, Bitcoin funds or tokenised assets that we trust.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
8 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
3 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
126 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
4 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
9 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Blockchain and distributed ledger has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.