Tidal and wave energy
Wave and tidal developers have set out plans to cut costs. They have not yet shown they can match offshore wind on cost. The test is repeatable output, maintenance and delivered cost from successive projects. Until then, neither the roadmaps nor permanent uncompetitiveness is fact.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
State of the art (2026)
Tidal stream is the more advanced of the two. MeyGen in the Pentland Firth runs four turbines with 6 MW of capacity, and Orbital Marine's O2 floating turbine supplies the Orkney grid. In wave power, CorPower Ocean has connected its C4 device to the grid at Aguçadoura in Portugal. The UK government published the results of its seventh contract auction round (AR7) on 14 January 2026 and updated them on 10 February. We do not have a confirmed figure for how the budget open to tidal projects changed in that round. Both technologies still cost considerably more than offshore wind.
Tidal stream is more commercial than wave energy
SAE Renewables MeyGen 6 MW operational since 2017 (longest commercial tidal-stream record). Orbital Marine O2 floating 2 MW commercial. Nova Innovation + Verdant Power. Tidal predictable energy production + lower mechanical complexity than wave. Wave energy stays research-pilot.
UK + EU CfD + leasing support sustains demonstration programmes
UK Pot 4/5/6 CfD contracts + Crown Estate Scotland leasing + EU + France + Ireland support. Demonstration programmes funded through 2027-2028. Without sustained government support, commercial pathway closes.
Niche island + remote + grid-stabilisation applications
Orkney + Shetland + Tasmania + Gibraltar deployments demonstrate niche applications where conventional grid uneconomical + tidal/wave predictable energy useful for grid stabilisation. ~$2-3B contract pipeline over 5 years.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
175 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
7 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
7 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 19
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
9 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
5 disconfirming conditions
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Tidal and wave energy has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.