Sustainable aviation fuel
Sustainable aviation fuel supply is still small next to aviation demand. The airline body IATA's June estimate puts 2026 production at 2.4 million tonnes, or 0.8% of aviation fuel use, and that is a forecast. Biofuel and electricity-based fuels need different feedstock, energy and plants, so mandates alone will not guarantee supply.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
State of the art (2026)
Supply of sustainable aviation fuel is small compared with demand for jet fuel. IATA's June 2026 estimate puts 2026 production at 2.4 million tonnes, about 0.8% of aviation fuel use. Most of it is made from waste fats and oils. The EU's ReFuelEU rules have required fuel supplied at EU airports to contain 2% sustainable fuel since 2025, rising to 6% in 2030. Within that, synthetic fuels made with electricity must average 1.2% across 2030 and 2031, with at least 0.7% in each of the two years.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
1 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
50 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
3 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
19 · 19
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
8 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
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