Small modular reactors
China's 150 MW HTR-PM has sold power commercially since December 2023, though it ran at 44% of capacity in 2025. Its Linglong One missed a first-half 2026 start and was still in testing in October. No Western small reactor generates power yet: TerraPower's Natrium won the first US commercial-scale construction permit in March 2026, and the first are due at Darlington at the end of 2030 and Natrium in 2031.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 10, 2026
Core thesis
Small reactors are meant to be built in factories and to cost much less per plant than a full-size reactor. China is ahead. Its HTR-PM plant at Shidaowan has been in commercial operation since December 2023, according to the IAEA. No small reactor is selling power in the United States yet. NuScale's 77 MWe US460 design received the nuclear regulator's standard design approval in May 2025. That approves the design. It is not a licence to build at a site, and NuScale has no firm US order. TerraPower received a construction permit for its 345 MWe Natrium plant at Kemmerer, Wyoming, in March 2026, and the regulator approved X-energy's construction permit on 9 November 2026. Kairos Power is building its Hermes test reactor. Google, Amazon and Meta have each signed deals to buy power from small reactors. The first US units are due between 2027 and 2030.
State of the art (2026)
The US advanced-reactor era opened in earnest in 2026. The NRC's Part 53 framework – the first new reactor-licensing rulebook since 1989 – took effect on 29 April 2026, and TerraPower's 345 MWe Natrium received the first commercial-scale advanced-reactor construction permit on 4 March 2026, with construction now under way at Kemmerer, Wyoming. Demand is led by hyperscalers: Kairos Power's Hermes 2 (50 MWe) anchors the first US Gen IV utility PPA (TVA–Google, Aug 2025) for 2030 operations; X-energy and Dow's Long Mott permit sits in accelerated NRC review; Oklo, Amazon and Meta hold multi-gigawatt pipelines. No SMR yet generates commercial power, but the regulatory and offtake scaffolding is now built.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
58 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
5 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
7 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
19 · 20 · 1
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
8 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
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