Nuclear waste recycling
US nuclear-fuel recycling is at the stage of choosing a demonstration partner. The Department of Energy closed applications for an Idaho partnership in July. Selection, financing, construction and operation are all still to come. Recycling may supply fuel for advanced reactors, but this process has not yet produced an operating commercial plant, and residual waste will still have to be managed.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
France (Orano) and Russia (Rosatom) reprocess spent fuel commercially. The US banned reprocessing in 1977 under Carter on proliferation grounds. TerraPower's Natrium can use reprocessed fuel. The waste problem is political, not technical — all US nuclear waste fits on a single football field. Yucca Mountain remains unopened.
State of the art (2026)
The live story is the United States re-entering fuel recycling after a 48-year retreat. In February 2026 the DOE awarded roughly 19 million dollars across five firms – Curio, Oklo, Flibe Energy and others – to develop used-fuel recycling, with Curio targeting a pilot-scale NuCycle demonstration by late 2027. France's Orano La Hague remains the only industrial-scale Western reprocessor, while Russia's Rosatom runs the BN-800 fast reactor. The durable commercial reality, though, is storage, not recycling: Yucca Mountain stays blocked, Finland's Onkalo nears first spent-fuel emplacement, and consolidated interim casks from Holtec underpin near-term economics. AI-datacentre nuclear demand is the new tailwind pulling the closed fuel cycle from research into commercial planning.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
3 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
197 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
4 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
7 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
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