Grid modernisation
Grid constraints are serious, and some can be eased. The International Energy Agency (IEA) finds that dynamic ratings and power-flow control can free up capacity on existing networks while new lines are built. How much depends on the site. Physical limits remain, and some expansion will still be needed.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
The US grid was built for one-way power flow and now has to carry bidirectional renewables, EV charging, distributed storage and – decisively – AI data-centre load, which drove roughly half of all US electricity-demand growth in 2025. Interconnection, not generation, is the ceiling: queues run 4–7 years in the hottest markets (Northern Virginia, Phoenix, Dallas) and the LBNL queue topped ~2,300 GW. The physical hardware decides build pace – large-power-transformer lead times sit at 18–36 months (some HV units quoted to 48), and HVDC converters, GOES electrical steel and HV cable are all tight. The core technologies (HVDC, advanced metering, DERMS, AI orchestration) are mature; deployment speed and supply chain are the constraint, with the IEA putting global grid need above $600B/year by 2030.
State of the art (2026)
The defining 2026 event was SunZia coming online on 18 June - 3,000 MW of HVDC across 550 miles from New Mexico wind to the Southwest, the first major US long-haul transmission in two decades and proof that merchant transmission is financeable. Underneath it the bottleneck is unchanged: large-power-transformer lead times sit at 18-36 months, and roughly 150 GW of data-centre interconnect requests now queue in PJM, ERCOT, CAISO and MISO, dwarfing the renewables backlog. FERC Order 1920 regional planning compliance filings landed through 2025-26, but under chair Laura Swett the commission tilts toward gas and reliability. The constraint that decides build pace is physical hardware - transformers, HVDC converters, GOES electrical steel - far more than software.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
6 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
106 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
9 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 19
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
8 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Grid modernisation has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.