Green hydrogen
Green hydrogen needs committed buyers and usable infrastructure as well as cheap electricity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) finds refining and chemicals leading low-emissions hydrogen adoption. We would look at a real site's power supply, delivered cost and firm purchase contracts. A single electricity-price threshold tells you little.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
Green hydrogen is a real but narrow decarbonisation play, not a fuel revolution. The economics still turn on two levers: electrolyser capex and renewable power price. BloombergNEF puts production at roughly $3.7-11.7/kg, against grey hydrogen at $1-2/kg, and non-China electrolyser capex ($2,000-2,600/kW) runs three to four times China's ($600-1,200/kW). After roughly 60 project cancellations in 2025 cut the IEA's announced-2030 pipeline from 49 to 37 Mtpa, the surviving thesis is policy-anchored offtake in steel and ammonia – Stegra in Sweden, ACWA-Air Products' NEOM plant – where subsidy plus sub-$30/MWh power closes the gap. Everywhere else the case is unproven.
State of the art (2026)
Green hydrogen in 2026 is a sector correcting hard against cost reality. The IEA's Global Hydrogen Review 2025 cut the announced-2030 pipeline from 49 to 37 Mtpa as roughly 60 electrolysis-heavy projects were cancelled in 2025, including BP's exit from the Australian Renewable Energy Hub. BloombergNEF puts production at $3.7-11.7/kg; non-China electrolyser capex remains $2,000-2,600/kW against China's $600-1,200/kW. Trump's OBBBA (July 2025) forces 45V projects to start construction by 31 December 2027. The survivors are policy-anchored: ACWA-Air Products' $8.4bn NEOM plant, ~90% built, now targets commercial green-ammonia output in 2027, and the EU Hydrogen Bank's third auction awarded over EUR 1bn in early 2026.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
63 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
3 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
7 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Green hydrogen has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.