Geothermal energy
Fervo reports first power from Cape Station's first 33 MW block on September 24. The site is scaling up and is not yet in full commercial operation. Sustained output, reservoir performance and delivered electricity cost are still to be shown.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
Traditional geothermal is limited to volcanic regions. EGS uses horizontal drilling (borrowed from fracking) to access hot rock anywhere. Fervo Energy has moved from its 2023 Nevada pilot to commercial scale: Cape Station in Utah energises its first ~100MW in October 2026 on the way to a 500MW build-out by 2028, under a Google framework agreement for up to 3GW of geothermal through 2033. Fervo IPOd on Nasdaq in May 2026 (FRVO), raising roughly $2.2B. If EGS hits its cost targets, it is 24/7 clean baseload power – the holy grail for data centres. Drilling cost per MWh and induced-seismicity risk remain the open questions.
State of the art (2026)
Next-generation geothermal has crossed from pilot to project finance. Fervo Energy's Cape Station in Utah – the first commercial-scale EGS – has its initial 100MW on track to energise the grid in October 2026, with Baker Hughes and Turboden ORC turbines contracted toward a 500MW build-out by 2028 under a Google offtake. Closed-loop reached a milestone too: Eavor's Geretsried plant in Bavaria delivered first grid electricity in December 2025, proving the sealed-loop architecture without hydraulic stimulation. Ultra-deep remains pre-commercial – Quaise drilled 100m of granite with millimetre-wave gyrotrons in 2025, targeting a 2028 pilot. The live question is whether EGS levelised cost falls below roughly 60 dollars per MWh fast enough to win baseload, not whether it works.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
8 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
43 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
4 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
7 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
7 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
3 disconfirming conditions
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Geothermal energy has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.