Enhanced rock weathering
Enhanced weathering is finding ways to combine models with field measurements. Isometric's quantification module requires validation, transparency and continued direct sampling, so a model's output still has to be checked. This could reduce the measuring work as evidence builds. Lowest cost, removal by the gigatonne and automatic eligibility for credits are all still unproven.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Frontier + Microsoft + Google demand provides multi-year supplier funding anchor
Advance purchases underwrite supplier scale-up: Frontier signed 154,240t from Lithos Carbon for $57.1M, Google contracted 200,000t from Terradot (its largest-ever CDR purchase), and Microsoft has bought ERW from Lithos, UNDO, InPlanet and Terradot. Without this anchored offtake, ERW suppliers could not reach commercial scale.
State of the art (2026)
Enhanced rock weathering has moved from field pilots to audited commercial issuance. The world's first EW removal credits were certified through Isometric in December 2024, and Isometric and Puro.earth now issue deployment-scale, model-backed credits with most underlying delivery data published. Mati Carbon won the $50M XPRIZE Carbon Removal grand prize in April 2025 for basalt on Indian smallholder farms, while InPlanet's Microsoft offtake (28,500 tonnes, 2026-2028) routes through Isometric. Lithos, UNDO and Eion anchor US and UK supply on Frontier and Microsoft demand. Costs sit near $200-400/tCO2. The live gating event is ICVCM Core Carbon Principles approval of the enhanced-weathering protocol, still in assessment, which would admit institutional and compliance-adjacent buyers.
ICVCM CCP approval is the next regulatory inflection
Audited ERW credits already issue via Isometric and Puro.earth. The next demand unlock is ICVCM Core Carbon Principles approval of an enhanced-weathering protocol (in assessment), plus EU CRCF recognition - admitting institutional and compliance-adjacent buyers and driving premium pricing. Without it, ERW stays largely a voluntary-market, early-adopter pathway.
Cost compression to $50-100/tCO2 by 2028-2030 unlocks corporate net-zero demand
$200-600/tCO2 currently. Cost compression via (1) MRV automation + standardisation, (2) rock spreading + transport optimisation, (3) co-located mining + agriculture. Below $100/tCO2 unlocks Fortune-500 corporate net-zero buyer demand vs current early-adopter-only market.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
168 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
7 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
8 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
8 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
5 disconfirming conditions
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Enhanced rock weathering has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.