Direct air capture
The measures that count for direct air capture (DAC) are verified net removals and operating cost, whatever a project has raised. STRATOS describes a design capacity of up to 500,000 tonnes a year once fully operational, and its energy and storage arrangements are specified. It has not yet shown that annual output, and it is too early to name a winning developer.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
Core thesis
Direct air capture plants are small today. Climeworks gives its Mammoth plant in Iceland a nameplate capacity of 36,000 tonnes of CO2 a year once fully built. That is a design figure for the finished plant. It does not tell us how much has been captured, or how much is removed after the plant's own emissions are counted. STRATOS in Texas is designed for up to 500,000 tonnes a year once fully operating. The main buyers are companies purchasing removal credits voluntarily. We judge the technology on verified net removals and operating cost.
State of the art (2026)
The decisive event of 2026 is Occidental/1PointFive bringing Stratos online in Texas — Phase 1 began startup in Q2 2026, with a 500,000 tCO2/yr design capacity that is roughly an order of magnitude above all DAC operating today. Its ramp is the industry's real-world cost test. Climeworks's Mammoth in Iceland, nominally the largest operating plant at 36,000 tCO2/yr, captured only around 105 tonnes across 2024 — a stark nameplate-versus-reality gap that defines the credibility risk. Demand still rests on a thin base: Frontier's advance commitments and Microsoft's multi-million-tonne offtakes. Policy held — the US 45Q credit stayed at $180/tonne for DAC under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed July 2025, now with EOR parity. Costs remain $400-1,000/tonne; the sub-$300 path is unproven.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
50 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
4 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
6 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
11 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Direct air capture has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.