Carbon capture and storage
Carbon capture and storage has working transport and storage infrastructure. Northern Lights reported first injection in August 2025, and its expansion is a separate investment and construction programme. Costs and bankability differ by project, so evaluate capture, transport, storage liability and utilisation together for each one.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
State of the art (2026)
CCS has moved from pilots to financed infrastructure. Northern Lights (Equinor/Shell/TotalEnergies) shipped its first CO2 from Heidelberg Materials Brevik in 2025 and took Phase 2 FID in March 2025, lifting capacity toward 5 Mt/yr by 2028. In the UK, the East Coast Cluster and HyNet reached financial close and are now in construction for 2028 start-up. US policy firmed up: the July 2025 reconciliation act preserved 45Q at $85/t for point-source and $180/t for DAC, with EOR and storage now at parity. Economics still split sharply - point-source capture is roughly $50-120/t and bankable, while direct air capture stays $400-600/t, with Occidental Stratos in late commissioning. The durable moat is storage geology, Class VI permits and CO2 pipelines, not capture chemistry.
Core thesis
Value in CCS accrues to whoever owns CO2 storage geology, Class VI permits and pipelines, not to capture chemistry. Point-source capture (cement, steel, gas) is bankable near $50-120/t and now underwritten by 45Q at $85/t for storage. Direct air capture stays a 2030s bet at $400-600/t and competes with AI data centres for the same clean power, which pays more. The bankable play is storage and transport infrastructure with long-term emitter offtake; pure capture-tech vendors without storage rights are the weakest link.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
9 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
4 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
55 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
4 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
7 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
9 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
You've read the verdict. The file is much deeper.
The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on Carbon capture and storage has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.