AI weather and climate prediction
AI weather forecasts are now in operational use. At the European centre ECMWF, the second AIFS version improves some wave and snow forecasts, and its physics-based IFS is improving too. Which is better depends on what you forecast, where and how far ahead.
Research snapshot · updated Nov 12, 2026
State of the art (2026)
AI weather models are in operational use. ECMWF has run its AI forecasting system, AIFS, alongside its physics-based model since 2025. In a study published in December 2024, Google DeepMind's GenCast was trained on data up to 2018 and tested on 2019 weather, where it beat ECMWF's ensemble forecast on 97.2% of the measures tested. That result covers one test year and one comparison model. Forecast users still need to compare models for the variable, place and lead time they care about.
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Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
11 signals
Signal stack
Evidence stacked leading → lagging
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
1 tracked
Technology-native KPIs
Metrics that predict trajectory, tracked over time
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
59 players · 6 layers
Landscape map
Who builds what, and who depends on whom
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
5 ahead
Catalyst calendar
Dated events that will move the position
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
7 milestones
Technology roadmap
Milestones on the path to maturity
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
20 · 20
Watchlists
Companies, people and papers, each with a condition for removing it
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Locked
Decision frameworks
What our view means for your job
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
8 updates
Thesis changelog
When our view changed, and why
Change our mind
2 disconfirming conditions
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The full signal stack, technology-native KPIs tracked over time, the landscape of who depends on whom, the dated catalyst calendar, decision frameworks for every desk, live watchlists and a record of every time our view on AI weather and climate prediction has changed. All of it is in CanaryIQ.